257
FXUS66 KLOX 221725
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1025 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...21/825 PM.
A shallower marine layer is expected over the next few days and a
significant warming trend will start Monday, peaking around
Wednesday with well above normal afternoon temperatures. A push of
moisture midweek will bring at least a low chance for rain and
then drier conditions return. Temperatures are expected to cool
heading into the end of the week and the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...22/801 AM.
***UPDATE***
Morning satellite imagery shows a similar picture to the previous
couple of days, with marine layer clouds filled in across coastal
and inland valley areas north of Point Conception and more broken
in coverage south of Point Conception. There is also evidence of
small eddies along the coast of Ventura and LA Counties. The one
change is the marine layer has continued to lower, with aircraft-
reported cloud tops around 2000 ft north of the point and closer
to 1500 ft to the south. With this lowering there were a few
sensor reports of visibility under 1 mile in fog.
For the rest of the day the forecast remains on track for a
degrees of warming from yesterday, under sunny skies, with
coastal areas mostly in the 70s and some of the warmest inland
valleys in the 80s this afternoon, while desert valleys reach the
90s.
***From Previous Discussion***
Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, ridge will nose in from the
southeast through the period, peaking in strength on Tuesday. At
the surface, moderate to strong onshore gradients will persist to
the east with some weak northerly offshore gradients.
Forecast-wise, main issue in the short term will be the building
heat. As the ridge builds overhead, warming boundary layer and
more limited marine influence, temperatures will be on the upswing
for all areas through Wednesday. In fact, by Tuesday/Wednesday,
areas away from the immediate coastal plain will generally be 4-8
degrees above seasonal normals. Additionally on Wednesday, an
influx of some mid-level moisture across LA and Ventura counties
may exacerbate the heat a little bit more. At this time, Heat Risk
guidance indicates some areas of moderate heat risk across LA
county on Tuesday/Wednesday, especially across the interior
coastal plain and valleys. Admittedly under normal conditions,
these conditions would be marginal for any heat products. However
given the current influx of visitors and numerous outdoor events
across the county, will continue with the HEAT ADVISORY for Los
Angeles county (interior coastal plain, valleys and mountains)
from Tuesday through Wednesday.
Secondary issue for the short term will be an influx of some
mid-level moisture on Wednesday. Deterministic models and their
respective ensembles still indicate PWATs increasing to 125-175%
of normal during the day on Wednesday, mainly across Ventura and
LA counties. Still a question whether or not any sort of weak
shortwave will move across the area on Wednesday. However, given
the situation will continue with the 5-15% POPs across Ventura and
LA counties with the highest POPs over the higher terrain. If any
showers do develop, they will be high-based and likely to produce
minimal rainfall at the surface. As for the potential for any
thunderstorms, chances still look rather limited (around 5%), but
this will need to be monitored closely. If any thunderstorms would
happen to develop on Wednesday, dry lightning and gusty outflow
winds would be the main concerns.
Other than temperatures and shower chances, no significant issues
are expected through Wednesday. The marine layer will remain,
impacting the coastal plain and lower coastal valleys. However the
areal extent each night should be a little bit less than the night
before. As for winds, there will continue to be the gusty
southwesterly winds across interior sections, but any advisory
level winds will remain localized in the desert foothills.
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...22/148 AM.
For the extended period, models continue to exhibit good synoptic
agreement. At upper levels, trough will sag across the state with
cyclonic flow over the area through the weekend. At the surface,
moderate onshore flow will continue with some enhancement of
northerly offshore gradients next weekend.
Forecast-wise, no dramatic changes to current forecast thinking.
On Thursday, the heat will have one last hurrah across the area,
although it will be a couple degrees cooler than Wednesday. So,
HEAT ADVISORIES for LA county will remain in effect through
Thursday evening.
For Friday through Sunday, the cyclonic flow aloft will usher
in a cooling trend for all areas with lowering thicknesses and
increased areal coverage of marine layer stratus. Typical onshore
winds will continue across interior sections each afternoon and
evening. However, with the increase in northerly offshore
gradients, there will be an increase in northerly winds across the
Santa Ynez Range and the I-5 Corridor. Winds across the western
half of the Santa Ynez Range could approach advisory levels next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...22/1722Z.
At 1610Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 3400 feet with a temperature of 17 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).
For all other sites, low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAFs.
Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and
flight minimums by one category.
There is a 50% chance of LIFR CIGs at KPRB from 23/10-15Z.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. No significant
east wind component is expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conditions expected.
However, there is a 10% chance of CIG/VSBY restrictions from
23/08-15Z.
&&
.MARINE...22/818 AM.
High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Wednesday. Local gusts
could reach 21 kts near Point Conception in the evening.
Moderate chances for SCA conditions return to the Outer Waters
Thursday afternoon/evening persisting into the weekend.
These conditions could reach into the nearshore waters along
the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel at times.
Main concern is wind although seas could approach SCA levels
later into the weekend.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect from 8 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT
Thursday for zones 88-368-372-373-379-380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...SB/CC
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
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